The Mountain West is heating up, and San Diego State is in control. The No. 22 Aztecs are 17-4 and 8-1 in conference play, a game up on Boise State for first and two games ahead of 16-6 (6-3) Nevada.
The Wolf Pack have lost two of their past three games to UNLV and Boise State, both on the road. They’re back home tonight and need a big game from Jarod Lucas to knock off SDSU.
Here are the odds for the Aztecs and Wolf Pack in Nevada tonight:
San Diego State vs. Nevada odds spread and total
San Diego State vs. Nevada prediction and pick
Nevada has yet to lose a game at home and the Wolf Pack are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 home games.
Home court advantage will be important for them today, yet they’re still a slight underdog against the ranked opponent. They also have the best scorer on the floor, Jarod Lucas, averages 17.0 points a game, four more than the Aztecs’ high scorer, Matt Bradley.
In the last meeting between these two teams, a 74-65 win for SDSU, Lucas was held to 11 points and no assists. He needs to do more in this one and I expect him to.
In this recent three-game skid, Nevada got beat by Boise State’s elite level defense and then didn’t shoot the ball well against UNLV. I think the Wolf Pack’s shooting will come around today against San Diego State, a team that is surprisingly unremarkable on defense, 61st in efficiency, and 79th in scoring D.
San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games, but three of those were against teams under .500 in the conference. I think Nevada is a different type of test and will keep it close, maybe even win outright as a home dog.
Pick: Nevada +3 (-105)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change