Our senior form analyst Jamie Lynch delivers his verdict on all 20 declared runners for the historic handicap at Newcastle on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
1. TASHKHAN (Drawn 16)
Jockey: Ben Robinson | Trainer: B Ellison
A big weight needn’t bother him remembering that he carried 10-2 when third in last year’s Cesarewitch, after which he got bronze again in a Group 1 in France, a class component which rationalises a mark of 111, which could be higher still on some calculation, but his task is magnified by coming on cold, withdrawn from the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot last weekend because of the fast ground: this will be his first start on All-Weather since getting his grounding at Dundalk way back in 2020.
2. YASHIN (1)
Scott McCullagh (3) | Mrs J Harrington
Mostly keeps pattern company these days and off the same mark here as when seventh in last year’s Ebor, when shaping like 2m may well be up his street (first try here). Messing with a tuning-up Kyprios on both starts this year, not to take that too literally, but it suggests if not shows that he’s in the form of his life, and the distance upscale could well be what he’s wanted all along.
3. SPARTAN ARMY (18)
Billy Loughnane | A King
Ultimately underwhelming over hurdles but suddenly surged when setting foot on synthetics and completed a hat-trick prior to checking in third in the Marathon Final here on Good Friday. Both that and his following fifth at Newbury indicates his mark is at its maximum, and difficult draw to overcome in 18.
4. ZOFFEE (13)
Harry Davies | H Palmer
Had been circling around a big one for a long time and eventually nailed the Chester Cup last month. Lessons learnt from last year (when running flat in the Plate) by missing Royal Ascot this time around to give him more time to target this, having won the consolation Vase in 2022. He’s spirited and straightforward but, tellingly, he’s 0/8 when his mark exceeds 90.
Zoffee is currently third favourite for the race
5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (12)
Connor Beasley | B Ellison
Has done his best work at Newcastle, successful in the rearranged November Handicap around here at the end of last year, that over 12f, but he’s equally effective at this trip as highlighted at Southwell last time when splitting Prydwen and Pledgeofallegiance, a performance which looks all the better in light of the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot. If it turns tactical, there are few faster than him in the finish.
6. TRUE LEGEND (15)
Cieren Fallon | Sir Mark Prescott
A great nudger who has nudged up his rating for over a year, beginning off 63 (with success here at Newcastle) and now over 2 stone higher after incremental improvement, but all at shorter trips, never before tackling 2m, maybe on purpose with an eye on this big day. This is the deepest field he has faced by far.
Onesmoothoperator and Ben Robinson are set to team up once more at Newcastle
7. TOO FRIENDLY (8)
Callum Shepherd | James Owen
The gamble of the Chester Cup (went off 9-2) but looked a non-stayer there, though it may have more a trait than the trip as he hasn’t found much for pressure twice since over shorter. One remaining ray of light is the All-Weather as the best he has ever looked on the Flat was his Kempton win in March.
8. ZEALANDIA (7)
Josephine Gordon | Ian Williams
Produced a lifetime best on New Year’s Day to win over this course and distance from classy companion Enemy, but the consequence has been a mark in the 90s, which might be beyond him given his dull displays since, the latest in the Chester Cup.
9. SPIRIT MIXER (6)
George Rooke | A M Balding
Chased home heavyweight Trueshan in the memorable 2022 renewal but it has basically been downhill ever since and his latest third was a hollow placing (beaten 8 lengths). There’s no recommending him right now.
10. DUKE OF OXFORD (20)
Tyler Heard (3) | M L W Bell
Up-and-coming stayer who ran a blinder over course and distance when beating all bar Prydwen in the Marathon Final on Good Friday. Easy to put a line through the Chester Cup when he was dropped out from a wide draw but he’s out of luck in that regard yet again, drawn 20 of 20, but for which he’d be amongst the favourites given his age and progressive profile.
Solent Gateway is Hugo Palmer’s charge for the race
11. SOLENT GATEWAY (4)
Rowan Scott | H Palmer
Rebounded from a reduced mark last time at Haydock when runner-up to the thriving Divine Comedy, though never laid a glove on her, and it’s still a stretch to say he’s the same now as when third in this race in 2022.
12. GRAND PROVIDENCE (14)
David Probert | A M Balding
Has been racing for little over a year and still pushing upwards, but has inevitably found it harder in the leagues she’s now playing, fifth in the Chester Cup last time (when having more chance than most from her prominent position). There’s a suspicion she’ll be better with stiffer tests than an All-Weather 2m provides.
13. ISLAND BRAVE (5)
Ethan Jones (5) | H Main
Has previously had two cracks at a Northumberland Plate including a fourth off 100 in 2021 but his efforts this year suggests age has caught up with him, and he’s due to drop a further 3 lb.
14. TROOPER BISDEE (10)
Hollie Doyle | Sir Mark Prescott
Surface stats of 6/9 in handicaps tells a tale of his trajectory and his trainer, and, without knowing the specifics (reassessed mark yet to be published), generally he’s well-in here under a penalty as he’ll be going up a good bit more than 5 lb for his Pontefract win by 4 lengths, which could have been double that had the rider wanted. He’s coming in hot, but he’s missing a few rungs of the ladder to swing at this high-end handicap, plus he hasn’t run on the All-Weather since his 2-y-o groundwork.
Hollie Doyle rides Trooper Bisdee
15. EVALUATION (19)
A Mullen | Miss Lucinda V Russell
Took advantage of circumstances to win a 0-85 at Wolverhampton last time, on just his second start for the stable. This sort of mark has been beyond him in the past – he finished fourth in the Vase off 89 in 2022 – and stall 19 only compounds matters.
16. HOWTH (9)
Marco Ghiani | M Appleby
First go at 2m when fourth in the Marathon Final here on Good Friday, but not seen since. Seems at last to be undergoing a Mick Appleby makeover but probably biting off more than he can chew in a race like this.
Kevin Ryan saddles Forta Orta
17. GOLDEN FLAME (11)
D Fentiman | Ms D C Faulkner
Trainer had the runner-up last year with Golden Rules, though that one had proven his worth in the spring whereas Golden Flame hasn’t been seen since October 2022 (for Charlie Johnston).
18. FORZA ORTA (17)
J P Sullivan | K A Ryan
Won on his first attempt at 2m at York’s Ebor meeting but hasn’t kicked on from that, albeit beaten only 4 lengths in the Chester Cup (eighth). Making All-Weather debut here, from a difficult draw.
19. RATHGAR (3)
Cam Hardie | J Channon
Has raised his game since coming to 1¾m, but these are challenging circumstances for his first go at this far, from 2 lb out of the handicap in a race as well-contested as this. Best hope is a falsely-run race, which isn’t out of the question looking at the pace projection.
20. ARTISAN DANCER (2)
Andrew Breslin (3) | C Johnston
One of the horses of the All-Weather season for his dependability and durability, and maintaining standards into the turf season, but he has never been in a race like this, and he’s 3 lb out of the weights.