UFC 266: Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler preview and prediction.
It’s hard to believe that Nick Diaz is making a return at UFC 266 after over six years away from the competition. There was always speculation and hope from the fanbase that one day he would make his triumphed return. But it always seemed like whenever the speculation was fueled by an interview or a social media post from Stockton’s son, the prospect of it happening would vanish shortly thereafter. Not this time, though. This time we have a date, an opponent, and a whole lot of excitement surrounding the return of Diaz.
It’ll be former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler welcoming Diaz back to Octagon, a rematch that’s been 17 years in the making. Both men fought back in 2004 in an incredibly entertaining affair that resulted in a surprising outcome when Diaz knocked out Lawler with a quick and short right hook that face-planted Lawler to the canvas.
It was a very unlikely outcome at the time, as Diaz was considered the Jiu-Jitsu whiz and Lawler was the devastating power puncher. The fight was Diaz’s coming out party, and the beginning of immense fanfare to come.
The fight was so early in both fighter’s careers, it’s of no use in predicting how the match-up will go in 2021. Since the first meeting, both have gone on to be champions and to have outstanding, highly decorated careers. Not to mention the fact that on a skill set front, both have improved exponentially and evolved into something very different than they were all of those years ago.
Who will win at UFC 266?
MMA is inherently unpredictable. But when you take into account the circumstances surrounding the Diaz vs. Lawler 2 fight, it’s especially tough to make a prediction. Primarily because of the inactivity of both fighters.
In a sport where you’re only considered as good as your last fight, it’s hard to know if that principle can be applied when your last fight was over six years ago like Diaz’s was. While Lawler has been more active than his counterpart, he has still only competed 3 times in the past two years. But whether the sample size is large or small, old or new, you can only work with what’s at your disposal.
Lawler is a power puncher who thrives in a brawl. One of his greatest attributes is the ability to absorb an impossible amount of damage, yet continue to trudge forward and maintain the same level of aggression from bell to bell. Oftentimes, upping the intensity as the fight progresses.
Lawler is ferocious, especially if he smells blood. He always throws with fight-ending intentions, but if there is any indication his opponent is hurt, he throws with unmatched fury. Yet, amidst a firefight, he still manages to be cerebral about his decision-making. He is always willing to walk straight into a war, but is cognizant of his defense and minimizes openings for his opponent to do damage. It’s often what allows him to come out on top in closely contested slugfests.
Diaz has some of the nicest boxing in MMA. His pitter-patter style of punching is something to behold. He doesn’t throw with big power, but he maintains high output with incredible accuracy and is great at flustering his opponents. He has an amazing ability to transition from the body to the head, with varying levels of power between punches in his combinations.
In the grappling realm, Diaz is the more skilled fighter. The only problem is he essentially doesn’t even use it. Based solely on the principle of not avoiding a fistfight. It’s a quality that endears him to the fans, but doesn’t do him any favors in terms of earning the victory.
Lawler has been a lot more active than Diaz, but there are two schools of thought here. The advantage of being active is not having ring rust, the disadvantage is the toll that all the wars have taken on Lawler in terms of his ability to take damage. While Diaz is no stranger to the party lifestyle, he has always been good about taking care of his body with consistent physical activity never waning, and a commitment to a healthy diet.
There is so much unknown going into this fight it’s difficult to call. Picking the outcome is like a coin toss, but when the coin gets flipped, it’s bound to land on Diaz.
Prediction: Nick Diaz via decision.
UFC 266 takes place on Saturday, Sept. 23, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Follow along with FanSided MMA who will be on-site for all your news and highlights.