At The Races pundit Tony Keenan is taking on the market leaders in Saturday’s Betfred Derby and opts for an Irish challenger to take the Epsom feature.
1. ADELAIDE RIVER
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan | Trainer: A P O’Brien
Winner of a Dundalk maiden on debut, he has run well in defeat in four subsequent tries at Group level without really suggesting he is up to winning a race like this. Well behind Arrest in the Chester Vase, though better ground will suit, with his dam one that enjoyed a fast surface, and arguably his best effort at two came on decent going in the Beresford.
Has gone forward to some degree in four of his five starts, so a possible front-runner should connections decide they want a pace on.
2. ARREST
L Dettori | J & T Gosden
The wide-margin winner of the Chester Vase on return this season, he is one of the few proven stayers in the field, and it is possible he improves again for that run as he has done so on the two other occasions he returned from a break.
He may have too much stamina for this, however, and prove more of a Leger type, and his finish at Chester was slow relative to a strong early gallop, while it is possible he was in the best part of the track when coming wide in the straight.
Connections have voiced concerns about fast ground for a while with him and he showed a marked knee action last time, so could do with all the watering that is coming and then some.
Frankie Dettori gives the Chester crowd one final flying dismount after victory on Arrest
3. ARTISTIC STAR
Rob Hornby | R M Beckett
A late May foal, he will be barely three when this race comes around but has shown plenty in his two starts to date, winning at Nottingham last October and Sandown in May, putting up decent efforts on the clock in both.
Trainer was concerned this race may come too soon for him, his last start just 18 days ago, but has the world of potential and bred to like a sound surface (full sister Forbearance best on good or faster), so could be one to hit the frame at a big price, something that happens quite frequently in this race.
4. AUGUSTE RODIN
R L Moore | A P O’Brien
The likely favourite is a classic case of vibes versus (recent) form, and Aidan O’Brien has already brought his other 2,000 Guineas disappointment back to win at Group level.
That might be comparing apples and oranges, however, or sculptors and teddies to be more accurate, as the Derby is a wholly different test and, if anything, Little Big Bear showed more at Newmarket under unsuitable conditions, whereas Auguste Rodin had circumstances largely right.
His juvenile form puts him right there, albeit that his wins at Leopardstown and Doncaster were achieved against rivals that went too hard, and neither race has worked out particularly well. Both those wins came on slow ground, though his trainer has long said a better surface would suit him, and clearly an interesting runner for all his price looks short.
Auguste Rodin wins at Doncaster in stunning fashion for Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien
5. DEAR MY FRIEND
Andrea Atzeni | Charlie Johnston
Seemingly the Charlie Johnson second string, he won a Listed race at Newcastle in April before finishing down the field when sent off 22/1 for the Dante. Needs to find a lot of improvement to figure here.
6. DUBAI MILE
Daniel Muscutt | Charlie Johnston
Showed a particularly good attitude to win a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud last October and ran about as well as could be expected when fifth in the 2,000 Guineas last month, where the ground was in his favour but very little else.
Trainer seems unconcerned about faster ground and while the form of the 2000 Guineas can be questioned a little, his previous defeat of Arrest is hard to knock, in a race where both handled conditions. This track is a worry, as he seems not to have handled the dip at Newmarket on the two occasions he has raced there.
7. KING OF STEEL
Kevin Stott | R Varian
Won his maiden first time out at Nottingham last October in impressive fashion and was asked a big question when running back 10 days later in the Futurity at Doncaster, where he finished seventh of eight.
This race asks another big question, especially as he missed his prep after being taken out of the Dante after getting upset in the stalls, and his new trainer Roger Varian may be happy enough just to find out where he stands with him.
8. MILITARY ORDER
W Buick | C Appleby
The sole Godolphin runner and very much bred for the task as a brother to 2021 winner Adayar, he has been improving run to run and won the Lingfield Derby Trial well last time.
A big sort and his ability to handle Lingfield bodes well for him acting at Epsom, though the form of that race is decent rather than standout, with the runner-up Waipiro not always helping his jockey in the straight whether through greenness or something else.
The pair pulled clear, however, and connections are of the view that he wants decent ground, though it is a little concerning that his powerful yard are not operating at quite their brilliant best this year.
Military Order is now 4/1 for the Betfred Derby after winning at Lingfield
9. PASSENGER
R Kingscote | Sir Michael Stoute
Perhaps the most intriguing runner in the field because Michael Stoute has opted to supplement him, a move that seems most unusual for him with a lightly-raced horse. The questions are to what degree is the horse pleasing him and to what degree does he think this is a winnable race?
The winner of the Wood Ditton, he looked particularly unlucky in the Dante when locked up with no run for at least a furlong of the straight, but while his breeding says 12 furlongs will be fine, his run style suggests he could be better over shorter, having raced keenly last time and on the bridle longer than anything else.
Twice-raced winners of the Derby aren’t common but Stoute has trained two of them in recent times in Workforce and Desert Crown, both of which ran in the Dante, and so he is respected in a big way.
10. SAN ANTONIO
W M Lordan | A P O’Brien
Gave Aidan O’Brien a 10th win in the Dee Stakes last time, though the trainer seems to prefer the Chester Vase for his Derby hopefuls, but that effort was big step up on his first start of the year, a maiden win at Dundalk.
Trainer comments after that race suggested that they might be worried about the trip, and his breeding suggests he might prove best at shorter for all he is worth a go in a race like this.
Sprewell runs away to victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial
11. SPREWELL
S Foley | Mrs J Harrington
Beaten in a pair of maidens at two, his form has taken off at three, winning an ordinary contest at Naas in March before stepping up markedly to win the Leopardstown Derby Trial last month.
Lots to like about that win including the visuals, as he smoothly came back on the bridle having been briefly nudged along on the turn in and soon pulled clear in the manner of one that could improve for further, while it is a positive that he comprehensively beat Up And Under, who represented the Ballysax form of White Birch and shaped best on the day.
Yet to race on anything approaching decent ground but both sides of his pedigree suggest he will be fine on it, as does his action, and he seems a notably relaxed type that should be suited to the demands of this race.
12. THE FOXES
Oisin Murphy | A M Balding
The winner of a strong Dante, though it isn’t hard to make the case that a few behind him could have finished closer, or even won, and has a likeable and progressive overall profile.
Plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so he should last the distance, but this undulating track is a concern as he tends to hang and didn’t look particularly comfortable at Newmarket in the Craven.
Oisin Murphy and The Foxes get the better of White Birch in the Dante Stakes at York
13. WAIPIRO
Tom Marquand | Ed Walker
Remains open to improvement after three starts and arguably a big price relative to Military Order on their Lingfield run, but he didn’t convince fully with his attitude in the finish there and reportedly got excitable beforehand.
14. WHITE BIRCH
C T Keane | J J Murphy
Ran out a wide-margin winner of a Dundalk maiden last November and caused an upset when a 22/1 winner of the Ballysax on return at Leopardstown, but proved that was no fluke when narrowly beaten by The Foxes in the Dante.
Sectional upgrading suggested he might have been the best horse on the day, though that doesn’t allow for the trouble Passenger met, but it is a positive that he handled fast ground well then. Gets a new jockey here with Colin Keane booked, and there is a sneaking feeling that Shane Foley may have directed connections away from Leopardstown a second time, while his draw in stall 2 is a negative.
TONY KEENAN’S VERDICT
There is a lot of soft ground form on offer in this year’s Derby, both from the trials and the backend of last season, so the temptation is to go with something from the Dante run on a sound surface. That race is hard to unpick, however, with each of the three runners from it having claims of coming out on top here, so I am inclined to opt for SPREWELL instead at around 12/1.
His most recent win at Leopardstown was achieved in excellent fashion, with form lines suggesting that race could be ahead of the Dante, and while the ground will be different here, plenty points to him handling it. Auguste Rodin is a fascinating runner, but he is hard to get behind at the prices, while Artistic Star is one that might outrun his odds.