Notre Dame football’s College Football Playoff scenarios should have the Irish rooting for conference title game underdogs…with one big exception.
The penultimate rankings for the College Football Playoff committee arrived on Tuesday, setting the stage for playoff hopefuls as they enter championship weekend.
Notre Dame is in a different position than the rest. They don’t have a conference title game to boost their resume right before the final rankings.
So what will it take for the Irish to get in?
Notre Dame playoff scenarios: Irish need help
There are five teams ranked ahead of the Irish. Realistically, they need two of four teams outside of Georgia to lose in their conference championship games.
Here are the current rankings.
- Georgia (vs. Alabama in SECCG)
- Michigan (vs. Iowa in B1GCG)
- Alabama (vs. Georgia in SECCG)
- Cincinnati (vs. Houston in AACCG)
- Oklahoma State (vs. Baylor in B12CG)
- Notre Dame (Inactive)
Notre Dame needs Georgia to win the SEC Championship Game
If Alabama beats Georgia, the Bulldogs are still expected to occupy a place in the CFP.
Alabama and Georgia both getting in wouldn’t exclude Notre Dame from getting it. They just need more results to go their way. With the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide in the Top 4, two of Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State would need to lose.
And Notre Dame needs Oklahoma State to lose the Big 12 Championship Game
Oklahoma State is battling Baylor in the Big 12 title game. That result is the simplest way for the Irish to move up. If the Bears eliminate the Cowboys from playoff contention, that’s one less debate the Irish would have to be involved with on Selection Sunday.
Pair that with an Alabama loss and ND should be in.
Or Notre Dame needs Cincinnati to lose the AAC Championship Game
A Cincinnati loss to Houston would make life easier for Notre Dame but they would still be vulnerable to finishing behind them because of the head-to-head result.
However, the CFP likely favors ND’s schedule strength. This would be the situation most likely for the Kelly factor to come into play.
Pair a Cincy loss with one more aside from Georgia and ND should be in.
Or Notre Dame needs Michigan to lose the Big Ten Championship Game
It’s the same scenario with Michigan. They’re playing Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. They’re not the most likely team to lose but it certainly wouldn’t hurt Notre Dame’s hopes if they suffered their second loss, especially with the Hawkeyes not in play.
The Irish can’t predict how the CFP will dock them for Kelly going to LSU, but that’s a potential wrench in the gears for all of these plans.
It’s time to start lighting candles at the grotto.
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