Our betting guru Jones Knows is back to preview an exciting weekend of Premier League action, where he sees a comfortable win for Tottenham at Forest.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham have scored in all their last 29 matches across all competitions. In the Premier League, only Brighton (32) are on a longer current run.
Compare that to Nottingham Forest who have failed to score in two of their last three matches. Their overall attacking metrics have them rated as a relegation threatened side as only Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United have a lower total expected goals output this season. Goals win football matches, so it’s easy to see why Spurs, playing such relentless and swashbuckling football, are 4/6 with Sky Bet for the away win.
Friday 15th December 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
My punting instincts have taken me to the cards market where I’m interested in Nottingham Forest to keep the referee Jarred Gillett busy.
Ange Postecoglou’s attacking football philosophy results in a huge number of one-on-one duels and take-on opportunities which ultimately raises the possibility of Spurs players being fouled by the opposition. No team have won more free-kicks this season than Spurs (224) and only Manchester City have drawn more yellow cards from the opposition than Postecoglou’s side (48).
Under the City Ground lights – with the supporters fully behind their under-pressure manager Steve Cooper – Forest may be tempted into a late tackle or two and will be keen on disrupting the Spurs rhythm. Cooper’s side to pick up more booking points than Spurs at Evens is a good starting point but I’m happy to back two individual players to pick up a card.
Cheick Kouyate – a 7/2 shot with Sky Bet – has been booked in both his last two starts and has picked up six yellows in just 1153 minutes of action for Forest since signing last season. Also, Harry Toffolo will be charged with keeping tabs on the returning Brennan Johnson, whose pace and trickery may lead to the aggressive full-back mistiming a challenge. It’s 9/2 with Sky Bet he gets carded and a whopping 25/1 if you back the double.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Cheick Kouyate & Harry Toffolo both to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Bournemouth vs Luton, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth are running hot, winning five of their last seven games – only Liverpool have picked up more points since October 28. Yet, they are completely unbackable here at 1/2 with Sky Bet as Luton are built to wobble their foundations and expose them from set pieces. I quite like the look of the draw at 7/2.
Only Nottingham Forest have conceded more goals from set pieces situations than the Cherries (7) with the expected goals metric of 5.85 suggesting underlying issues.
The betting avenue to explore is the 9/2 with Sky Bet about Luton defender Alfie Doughty registering an assist. For starters, Doughty is Luton’s set piece taker and he leads the charts in the Premier League for chances created per 90 minutes this season (1.52) of players to play 500 minutes or more – suggesting a higher level of accuracy than the likes of James Ward-Prowse and Trent Alexander-Arnold. He’s also leading the way for crosses into the box per 90 (9.39) in the Premier League.
Doughty should be backed to grab his fourth assist of the campaign.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Chelsea vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
In what looks a pretty drab betting heat with a low-scoring Chelsea win expected, heading to the player fouls and cards market may prove a wise play. Auston Trusty is likely to play down the left of the Blades defence and will have a busy afternoon of one-on-one duels with either Raheem Sterling or Cole Palmer asking him questions.
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Trusty is an aggressive player, who is traditionally more suited to playing centrally. He made four fouls in 1-0 win over Brentford, wiping out Keane Lewis-Potter with a couple of wild challenges that did draw a yellow card his way. Using the Bet Builder on Sky Bet for him to make two fouls and be yellow carded comes out at 4/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Latching onto a player switching positions can open up great betting opportunities in player prop markets. Significant value can be snapped up if you can react quicker and smarter than the traders, who perhaps have their eyes elsewhere on more liquid markets.
A great current example is centre-back turned defensive midfielder Chris Richards for Crystal Palace, who was outstanding in their 2-1 defeat to Liverpool. He did some important work in front of his back four, acting as the destroyer where he made four tackles and was yellow carded for a cynical foul in the second half.
Now, his recent data playing centre-back for Hoffenheim and Palace has him making 0.56 fouls per 90 minutes and his yellow card chances rated at just seven per cent over that sample size. Playing in this kind of role against City, who have drawn 54 yellow cards off the opposition this season – the most of any Premier League team – puts him firmly in the frame for picking up another booking at 3/1 with Sky Bet in what should be a routine home victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I bow down to anyone who saw this Fulham goal bonanza coming. After scoring just 10 goals in their opening 12 games, they’ve now hit 16 in their last four, including putting back-to-back 5-0 home wins together. And to think I was close to pulling the trigger on them to be relegated last month. Bullet dodged. Marco Silva is a seriously underrated operator.
Bottom lips were trembling all over the show at full-time at St James’ Park in midweek as somehow Newcastle were knocked out of Europe despite some impressive performances. Eddie Howe has a serious task to try and galvanise those players to go again and not make tiredness an excuse. Without Sven Botman and Nick Pope this is a defence that can be got at, especially when attack like Fulham arrive in such purring form.
Across their last eight matches, Eddie Howe’s side have shipped an average of 2.31 expected goals against per 90 and have faced a per game average of 17.25 shots on their goal. A fresh and firing Fulham can hit somewhere near those averages with the prices surrounding Alex Iwobi at the forefront of my betting plans.
In his last six starts the former Everton man has fired 17 shots and netted three goals playing in Silva’s fluid attacking foursome. Those numbers make his shot prices of Evens with Sky Bet for two or more and anytime goalscorer price of 5/1 very attractive punts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Alex Iwobi to have two or more shots (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
The Premier League has become a league where over 2.5 goal backers can make money.
With 160 games played this season, the total per-game goal average stands at 3.12. If this ratio remains consistent, it’s going to soar past the previous Premier League record of goals-per-game average, which was recorded last season at 2.85. This strong evidence means we’re at the stage where if over the 2.5 goals line is the outsider, it must automatically be considered a potential play. That’s what we have for the Sean Dyche derby with Evens available on over 2.5 goals.
It’s a surprising price considering Turf Moor has seen an average of 3.75 goals per game in eight Premier League matches this season with six of those eight going over the 2.5 line.
Everton are significantly weakened through the heart of their defence, too, with Jarrad Branthwaite suspended. The Toffees have lost both Premier League games to Fulham and Aston Villa without the James Tarkowski-Branthwaite axis, shipping five goals. Burnley can get on the scoresheet in a potentially exciting encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Back Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
In their last 26 matches across all competitions against Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Arsenal, Brighton have scored 46 goals. To average almost two goals per game in these fixtures against such elite oppositions is outrageous, therefore the total Brighton goals line is my desired angle here.
Roberto De Zerbi’s attack have also scored in their last 21 games away from home in the Premier League. They won’t be changing their risk-reward style for anyone, especially taking on a team they’ve scored eight goals against in their three fixtures with De Zerbi in charge. Arsenal should be nervous.
The 11/4 with Sky Bet for the Seagulls to score two or more goals is likely to give you a great run in what could be a fantastic spectacle of a football match.
Keep an eye on Pascal Gross getting in on the goal involvement act, too.
De Zerbi has employed him in a very creative hybrid role on the left of the Brighton midfield where he is linking up with Karou Mitoma very intelligently and providing very dangerous attacking moments for his side.
Across his last 303 minutes of Premier League action, he has registered five goal involvements (four assists, one goal) whilst posting six shots on target and creating 15 total chances for his teammates. Phenomenal numbers from a phenomenally underrated footballer who can be backed at 9/1 with Sky Bet to score or assist, have a shot on target and register two shots. That’s a great bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Pascal Gross to score or assist, have at least two shots & one on target (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
Lucas Digne’s suspension means Alex Moreno will step in down Villa’s left – a very important position in Unai Emery’s attacking structure. The left-wing back is tasked with providing the attacking width as Emery instructs his midfielders to play inside to overload that central area. Digne ranks third in the Premier League for defenders in terms of expected assists this season (2.61) and only four players have attempted more crosses in the Premier League (108).
Moreno, on the basis of watching him last season, offers greater attacking threat than Digne so I’m interested in the 9/2 with Sky Bet for him to register an assist in a game Villa should fancy their chances in.
In the period between March and the end of last season, he topped the charts for defenders in terms of take-ons in the opposition half at 3.3 per 90 which puts him in on a par with Karou Mitoma and his expected assist return was averaging around 0.2 per 90 which is very similar returns to Kieran Trippier and Andy Robertson. He can assist in an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I’m keen to back David Moyes to get a reaction from his West Ham defence after their 5-0 hammering at Fulham.
West Ham will be in no-thrills mode under Moyes, who has seen his team’s ship four or more goals on 49 occasions but their record in the matches immediately after shows they have won without conceding 14 times. That’s a 30 per cent chance of a win to nil coming straight after a thrashing. That looks interesting here at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
It makes little sense that Wolves have managed to score in their last 15 Premier League games, since their opening day 1-0 defeat to Manchester United. Gary O’Neil has got them moving in the right direction but that is a statistic you’d associate with Brighton or Tottenham, not a mediocre attacking team like Wolves. The fact they’ve scored just once in nine of those 15 matches tells you it won’t take much for this freakish run to end. It might just do here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Manchester United are 7/1 with Sky Bet to win a football match. How the mighty have fallen.
To be given just a 12.5 per cent probability chance of winning a Premier League game shows you just how bewilderingly bad United’s underlying process is and how wretched their record away from home against elite opposition is under Erik ten Hag. Remember, United have taken just one point from their 11 Premier League away games vs top nine sides under this manager (D1 L10) and have conceded 34 goals in those matches. Staggering.
With Bruno Fernandes suspended, their most creative outlet, United’s only hope of stifling Liverpool will be to turn this into a dog fight. Break up play, waste time, be organised in a block and hope all the big chances fall to Darwin Nunez rather than Mohamed Salah.
Ten Hag has shown he can utilise these tactics effectively, albeit usually against lesser opposition but the way Liverpool fumbled around against Palace’s low block last weekend for 75 minutes remains firmly in my thoughts. It was the same when tasked with breaking down 10-man Everton at Anfield earlier this season with a lack of guile in midfield still hampering their assent. United are trusted to avoid a hammering.
Swimming against the market and backing under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet certainly is a runner if United can stay in the game early doors whilst taking a chance on the Liverpool to win 1-0 or 2-0 at 5/1 also stands out.