Some second round action has gotten underway already, but we still need to finish the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
We will finalize the second round bracket after the Kings and Warriors play the lone Game 7 of the first round. However, we also have Game 1 action between the Knicks and Heat after each team advanced out of the first round in five games.
We have two player props for you from Kings-Warriors and a play on the over/under in Knicks-Heat on this Sunday afternoon of hoops:
Best NBA prop bets
- De’Aaron Fox OVER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Jordan Poole UNDER 14.5 Points (-145)
- Knicks-Heat UNDER 207.5 (-110)
De’Aaron Fox OVER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
De’Aaron Fox has been terrific in this series, clearing 40.5 points, rebounds and assists in four of the six games and landing on exactly 40 PRA in Game 5.
Fox has dominated any defender that Golden State has thrown at him, and I expect him to play all the minutes he can handle in Game 7.
The benefit with Fox is that even if he isn’t scoring a high rate, he can pick up close to double-digit assists (11 in Game 6, nine in Games 5, 3 and 2).
That gives him a solid base to clear this prop, and there’s always the potential he has a big scoring game (38 points in Game 1) to propel him past this number.
Jordan Poole UNDER 14.5 Points
In Game 7, Golden State is going to need to play its best players, and Jordan Poole simply hasn’t been one in this series.
Poole is a poor defender, and he’s averaging just 12.7 points per game on 33.8 percent shooting from the field in this series.
That’s not going to cut it, and the Warriors may be better off playing the defensive minded Gary Payton II or even youngster Moses Moody on the wing.
Poole always has the ability to get hot, but this series simply hasn’t gone well for him. Fade him in Game 7.
Knicks vs. Heat UNDER 207.5
The Knicks went UNDER on the total in every game of their first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and only Game 5 cleared 200 total points between the teams.
The Heat are a similar team to New York and Cleveland in their style of play, but Miami did score a ton of points against the Bucks. It was a major flip from a team that was 25th in the league in offensive rating during the regular season.
Still, I’m not going to overreact to that and take the UNDER in this game.
As I mentioned, these teams ranked 29th (Miami) and 26th (New York) in pace during the regular season, and both games they played at Madison Square Garden were low scoring affairs.
They finished with 210 points on Feb. 2 and 193 points on March 29.
New York’s defense has been much better in the playoffs than it was in the regular season, and I question whether or not Miami’s role players are going to be able to score at a high rate against New York’s scheme.
Butler will likely get his regardless, but overall I expect this game to be played a snail’s pace, leading to the UNDER.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.