The NHL Playoffs got off to a hot start last night. Not only did we have four great games, but I went 3-1 with my bets including cashing a +165 underdog bet on the Los Angeles Kings.
Can we stay hot in the other four Game 1s set to take place on Tuesday?
Let’s dive into my best bets for each game.
Best NHL bets for Tuesday, April 18
- Rangers +112 vs. Devils
- Lightning/Maple Leafs OVER 6 (+100)
- Jets +135 vs. Golden Knights
- Kraken/Avalanche UNDER 6.5 (-130)
Rangers +112 vs. Devils
After taking the league by storm last season, Igor Shesterkin is a name that hasn’t been talked about enough in the 2022-2023 campaign. That’s largely due to a quiet start to his season, but over the final stretch of games, he turned back into the goaltender who carries the Rangers in last year’s postseason.
He posted a .932 save percentage in the month of March and then followed that up with a .941 save percentage in April. If he continues to stay hot into the opening round of the playoffs, the Devils have a tall order in front of them.
The Rangers also have one thing the Devils don’t; experience. New York has been through a handful of postseason runs over the past few years and now the roster is filled with guys who know what it takes to win in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, nobody expected New Jersey to be good this season. They are a young team that has a bright future, but are performing ahead of where they were expected to. That could lead to some playoff hiccups as they get used to playing postseason hockey.
I think the Rangers get off to a fast start tonight and pull off a Game 1 upset.
Lightning/Maple Leafs OVER 6 (+100)
The numbers say that we should back the Maple Leafs in this game and the odds reflect that they’re the better team, but playoff history is going to make me nervous to bet on them at any point in the postseason.
So, I’m instead going to take a look at the total for tonight’s Game 1. With it set at 6, I like the OVER.
Neither team played well in their own end down the stretch of the season. In the final 25 games of the season, they ranked 17th and 21st in expected goals against and 19th/21st in high-danger scoring chances allowed.
Then there’s the goaltending issues. Ilya Samsonov has been strong in between the pipes for the Leafs in his last handful of starts, but he’s dealing with an injury that’s going to bring his production into question tonight.
Then there’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s having the worst season of his career since 2015-2016. He had just a .906 save percentage in March and an .899 save percentage in three starts in April.
I think we may see a high-scoring affair tonight as both offenses take advantage of sub-par defense and goaltending.
Jets +135 vs. Golden Knights
Despite their number one seeding, I’m not a believer in the Golden Knights.
Over their last 25 games, the Golden Knights ranked 26th in CORSI% (which measures all types of shot attempts for and against), 21st in expected goals percentage, and 20th in high-danger scoring percentage.
Those aren’t the types of numbers that usually make up a top seeded team. The Jets outrank them in all three of those areas over the same stretch of games.
Then, there’s the goaltending. Sure, Lauren Brossoit has a .927 save percentage eon the year, but he only has 10 starts. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some regression from him in the postseason considering he had an .895 save percentage in 21 starts for the Golden Knights last year.
I’d much prefer to trust the former Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets. He sports a .920 save percentage in 64 starts this season, and racked up a .953 save percentage in his last five starts this season.
Give me the Jets as underdogs tonight.
Kraken/Avalanche UNDER 6.5 (-130)
The Avalanche are massive favorites and I don’t have any interest taking the Kraken as underdogs, so instead I’m going to look at the total and back the UNDER tonight.
If the Kraken want any hope of hanging with the Avs, they need to play lockdown defense in their own end. Luckily, they were the best defensive team in the league in the final third of the season. Over their last 25 games, they ranked 1st in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.49.
The Avalanche were pretty strong in that area as well, coming in 6th in expected goals against over the same stretch of games.
The main concern with this bet is the Kraken goaltending situation, which has been amongst the worst in the NHL. Phillipp Grubauer will get the start against his former team, but he enters with an .895 save percentage on the season.
With that being said, he did sport a .941 save percentage in four games in April.
I’m going to bank on both teams playing strong hockey in their own end and back the UNDER tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.