2024 might be the Academy Awards’ biggest year in ages. The Oscar nominations, set for announcement on Tuesday, Jan. 23, are primed to honor highly regarded films from around the world, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and a few of the biggest movies of the year — including the Barbenheimer double feature of Oppenheimer and Barbie. It’s been a slow crawl back from the hazy pandemic era where movies that kinda sorta came out in time won Best Picture, but here we are, with a set of nomations that stands to be both predictable and electrifying.
How predictable? Well, let’s take a stab at guessing the nominees on the eve of the actual Oscar nominations.
Best Picture predictions
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American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Which movie could sneak in? The expansion of the Academy into a more global voting group has given international favorites more likelihood of breaking through into the top 10 Best Picture nominees — which is why Cannes Film Festival favorites like Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest have a strong chance of boxing out more traditional Hollywood prestige plays like The Color Purple or Air. Of these picks, I’m most dubious of Maestro having momentum, and wonder if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse or my beloved Asteroid City could slide in as a surprise upset.
What might win? Hovering at “If anything beats Oppenheimer, I will eat a shoe” levels of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.
Best Director predictions
Greta Gerwig — Barbie
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest
Who could sneak in? There is a lot of love for Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (see the next few categories), and he feels extremely honorable in this category. Glazer might be the one to bump to make room for Payne, but then again, The Zone of Interest is full-force directorial vision… and the directors will likely show up to honor that work.
Who might win? Nolan, as a makeup for not giving him 100 Oscars for Tenet (Oppenheimer is pretty good too).
Best Actor predictions
Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? While I am skeptical of Maestro, there is less competition in the actor category than you might think, leaving Cooper room to squeeze in. Still, there’s been little love over the down-the-middle biopic Rustin this award season and its star, Colman Domingo. Still, we hope he makes it to the red carpet one way or another — the man is fashionable!
Who might win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti picking up a ton of praise from different voting bodies over the season and Wright being a dark-horse favorite, but the impact of Oppenheimer across other categories might give Murphy the lead. No, it’s not fair that he got to emote that hard in IMAX.
Best Actress predictions
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Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Things
Who could sneak in? We don’t live in the worst timeline because Sandra Hüller, who broke out to international acclaim with 2016’s Toni Erdmann, anchored both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest and stands to be nominated in a category usually reserved for American actors. More on the cusp as I see it is Annette Bening, a four-time nominee who has never won. The pedigree gives her an edge here, but she won’t win and could possibly lose the spot to Margot Robbie, who made Barbie work far beyond any expectation.
Who might win? A close call between two stones, but even with the season equally divided between them, I am leaning toward Lily Gladstone, who enters the arena with the aura of breakout energy.
Best Supporting Actor predictions
Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton — May December
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? Poor Things seems much beloved across all the awards and industry voting bodies, but… Ruffalo did not get a coveted SAG Award nomination, which would leave a clear path for him into this mix. But if the Poor Things love is strong, could Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe bump Charles Melton?
Who might win? Ryan Gosling is happy to be there, but this is def going to Robert Downey Jr. for reminding us all he’s A Pretty Good Actor, Actually.
Best Supporting Actress predictions
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
Julianne Moore — May December
Jodie Foster — Nyad
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? Another category that looks fairly locked… but also prone to surprises. Could Danielle Brooks or Jodie Foster or Julianne Moore fall away in favor of perennial Oscar favorite Penelope Cruz in Ferrari or America Ferrera in Barbie? Unfortunately, yes, which makes these predictions less sturdy than everything else.
Who might win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping this category at critics groups and bigger award season stops, like the Golden Globes. Buy stock now!
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
Who could sneak in? There’s a high-percent chance Maestro kicks Saltburn out of the pack based on pedigree alone, but two things: Emerald Fennell won in this category back with Promising Young Woman, and everyone is watching Saltburn right now — including voters’ kids.
Who might win? The Holdovers has the stamp of approval from other categories, but I would not put it past Anatomy of a Fall to get its big win here. People love the movie!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who could sneak in? Barbie was a late-game addition to this category after the Academy ruled that being based on IP counts as adaptation. So what could knock out… probably American Fiction…? The only real contender looks like The Zone of Interest, which is technically based on a book of the same name by Martin Amis.
Who might win? Oppenheimer might have the fuel, but this might be the place voters think to reward Gerwig’s take on a toy-based movie.
The Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23, at 8:30 a.m. EST. Come back then for the full list of nominees and predictions for every category.